This blog is intended to go along with Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues, by John R. Weeks, published by Cengage Learning. The latest edition is the 12th (it came out in 2015), but this blog is meant to complement any edition of the book by showing the way in which demographic issues are regularly in the news.

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Thursday, January 10, 2013

Mexico's Population Projections

Population projections in the United States are now quite intimately involved with what is happening demographically in Mexico, and Mexico's CONAPO (National Council on Population) recently completed a set of projections for Mexico (at the state level) out to 2050, building on the new data from the 2010 census. They project an increase from the 114 million counted in the 2010 census to 137 million by 2050, with the population essentially leveling off at that number by about 2040. 

They project increases in life expectancy (from the current 77 years for women to 82 in 2050), coupled with declines in fertility (from the current TFR of 2.2 down to 2.1). Furthermore, the total number of births each year in Mexico is projected to stay very close to its current level of 2.2 million per year (dropping a bit to 1.9 million per year by 2050). This would clearly suggest that the need for young people in Mexico to migrate to the US because of the pressure of population growth on resources is forecast to recede into oblivion. But, that doesn't mean that CONAPO projects no migration. As we know, there will continue to be a demand for workers in the US to pay for the increasingly older population and CONAPO takes this into account, projecting that the net annual number of international emigrants from Mexico will rise from its current level of about 300,000 per year (a drop from the average of 500,000 in the previous decade) to about 600,000 per year by 2019 and staying at that level until 2050. That annual exodus is, of course, part of the explanation for Mexico's projected slow growth.

So far, CONAPO has published only summary data, and not age-sex structures. We can hope that these details will come along soon, prodded by members of SOMEDE (the Mexican Demographic Society) from whom I just learned about the new projections.

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