Muslims Represent About 1% of the U.S. Population

The Pew Research Center recently released its latest estimates of the Muslim population in the United States. This is not an easy task, of course, since the U.S. Census does not ask about religion, neither on the short-form nor on the American Community Survey. In a paper published many years ago, I explored some of the shortcomings of estimating the Muslim population, and also some of the ways in which these numbers might be inferred. My conclusion back then was as follows:

The overall numbers of Muslims estimated by this method - 2.5 million in 1990 and 3.4 million in 2000 - are slightly higher than the results from survey data, and suggest that the numbers for each state are reasonable. albeit probably maximum, representations of the actual numbers of Muslims in those states.

Those researchers familiar with the U.S. Muslim population may not be surprised to see the clusters of Muslims in the New York-New Jersey area, the Washington, D.C., area and the upper Midwest-Great Lakes.

Using estimates drawn from their own surveys of religious identification, and then applying those demographics to Census Bureau, the Pew Research Center has generated slightly smaller estimates of the U.S. Muslim population than produced by my methods, but the geographic distribution is essentially the same:

[B]ased on our own survey and demographic research, as well as outside sources, Pew Research Center estimates that there were about 3.45 million Muslims of all ages living in the U.S. in 2017, and that Muslims made up about 1.1% of the total U.S. population. 

Muslims are not evenly distributed around the country. Some metro areas, such as Washington, D.C., have sizable Muslim communities. Likewise, certain states, such as New Jersey, are home to two or three times as many Muslim adults per capita as the national average. But there are also states and counties with far fewer Muslims.

One possible reason for my estimates having been higher is that I included estimates of the conversion of Americans to Islam, especially within the African-American community, but I did not assume that people were leaving Islam. However, the Pew report suggests that about the same number of people leave the religion as convert to it.

Overall, the Pew report concludes that there are still more people of Jewish origin than there are Muslims in the U.S., but at current growth rates of each group, Muslims could surpass Jews by about 2040. 

Trump Administration is Trying to Skew Census Results

The Washington Post reports on the latest attempt by the Trump administration and many Republicans in Congress to throw a monkey wrench into the 2020 Census, this time with a particular focus to skew the results toward Republicans. The Justice Department is requesting that a question be asked on the 100-percent short-form count about citizenship.

Investigative reporting organization ProPublica disclosed last week that a Justice Department official formally asked the Census Bureau to add a question to the 2020 Census. Adding any question at this stage would be dicey, given that the bureau often runs extensive field tests before fiddling with its forms, ensuring that last-minute changes do not throw off its counting efforts. Worse, the Justice Department requested that the bureau inquire about people’s citizenship status. This threatens to sabotage the 2020 count.

Asking about citizenship status would drive down response rates. Since its inception, the census has not only counted voters; it has taken a precise snapshot of everyone in the country. This helps government agencies to direct scarce dollars, and businesses to guide investment decisions. It is also crucial for doling out congressional representation. As the Supreme Court recently underscored, the Constitution requires that congressional seats be apportioned to states according to their total populations, not only their voting populations. Asking about citizenship status would deter undocumented people — or even legal immigrants who fear how far the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreigners will extend — from returning census forms. Many states — particularly blue states — could end up shortchanged.

The American Community Survey (ACS), which replaced the long-form on the census as of the 2010 census, does ask a question about citizenship, so we have those data for a sample of the population, but not for the total count data that are used for redistricting. And, as the editorial board of the Washington Post points out, the only purpose of adding that question to the 100 percent count form would be to discourage immigrants from responding, thus skewing results more in favor of people who are more likely to be Republican voters. This is a genuine constitutional issue and needs to be resisted.

Why is Health Care So Expensive in the U.S.?

The United States has the highest per-person health cost of any country on the planet, yet the lowest life expectancy among rich countries, as I've noted before. What's going on here? A story in today's NYTimes tries to tackle that question.

The United States spends almost twice as much on health care, as a percentage of its economy, as other advanced industrialized countries — totaling $3.3 trillion, or 17.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2016.

But a few decades ago American health care spending was much closer to that of peer nations.

What happened?

A large part of the answer can be found in the title of a 2003 paper in Health Affairs by the Princeton University health economist Uwe Reinhardt: “It’s the prices, stupid.”

That paper uses data compiled by Paris-based OECD and a review of their reports over the years reveals a consistent theme: We pay more for every health-related service and good than do people in other countries. Physicians and nurses and other medical and administrative personnel get higher pay than elsewhere. Drug companies charge more here than in foreign markets. And since we don't have a government-sponsored or mandated health care system, we have very expensive costs associated with health insurance, not to mention the legal system's profits from medical malpractice suits.

The reality is that there are so many influential people and organizations that profit from these high prices that the health care system is very unlikely to change much any time soon. This is a burden that we are going to continue to bear, for better or worse.

Top Ten Posts in 2017

As I do at the beginning of each year, I have taken a look back at the most popular of my posts in the past year. Who are the winners among the 196 that I posted in 2017, based on the number of hits on each one? Here they are:

1. I appreciate the fact that my own near death experience was the top hit of 2017, and believe me when I say that I'm glad to be here in 2018 writing this!

2. It still warms my heart to read and think about the post on demography now and then.

3. Somewhat surprisingly, at least in my mind, was the fact that third on the list was the post about El Salvador having the most strict abortion laws in the world. The map showing the north-south divide in abortion is a rather startling geodemographic visual.

4. There is a tendency in the world today for people to shrug off the fact that the world's population growth continues to have genuinely negative consequences for people and the environment. This was the message in the post about famine looms. When you read this, you will see that there is a comment that seems to be unanswered. In fact, I did answer it, and that answer is 9th on this list.

5. Posts about the 2020 Census in the U.S. have all gotten a lot of hits, but the winner was the first one I put up in January discussing the fact that the redistricting battles were already heating up.

6. The sixth most hit upon post was the one a year ago about the Top Ten posts of 2016. So, if you want to relive that year demographically, you know where to find it.

7. Spain's appointment of a new "Sex Tsar" caught a lot of attention. The low-low fertility countries of southern Europe feel that they need to do something demographically besides just accept refugees from Africa and the Middle East. By the way, I don't see any evidence online that the birth rate in Spain has yet responded to anything proposed by the Sex Tsar.

8. I was very pleased to see that among the top ten posts was my summary of Mary Waters' lecture here in San Diego last year. Her discussion about "crimmigrants" and the new legal apartheid in America is even more cogent after a year of Trump administration policies.

9. This post was really a lengthy response to a comment made by Abu Daoud on my post of the previous day about looming famines (see #4 above). Here I say a bit more about the demographics of famine.

10. I've blogged fairly often about the demographics of Japan, including three times in 2017. The first post, about Japan facing up to its aging population, was the most popular of those three and rounds out the top ten.

Again, I'm happy to be here able to wish you Happy New Year!

National Academies Press Top Ten Highlights Demography Connections

It has always been my contention that demography is related to everything going on in the world. Sometimes distantly, I admit, but still connected. I had exactly that thought as I went down the list of the Top Ten of the most downloaded publications of 2017 from the National Academies Press. Keep in mind that all of these publications from the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine are free to download in PDF format--they only charge if you want a hard copy or an e-book copy. So, there is no price barrier to downloading and reading these reports. Here is the Top Ten and my evaluation of their connection to demography, even if no demographers were involved in the committees that wrote the report.

1. The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The Current State of Evidence and Recommendations for Research. You might think that this is only about getting high, but there are clearly demonstrated medicinal uses for marijuana which may not keep you alive longer, but may allow you to enjoy life a bit more. Of course, as with almost anything of this nature, too much may kill you (and others) earlier than expected.

2. Communicating Science Effectively: A Research Agenda In this era where the lessons of science, including demographic science, seem often to be under attack, it is important that we figure out how to get the messages out there successfully.

3. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration I blogged about this when it came out: http://weekspopulation.blogspot.com/2016/09/costs-and-benefits-of-immigration.html

4. Human Genome Editing: Science, Ethics, and Governance Human genome editing is one of the ways in which we may be able to forestall death and/or improve health as we age, so this can affect mortality and the aging process.

5. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity Once again the theme is on health care, in this case the issue of getting rid of major inequalities in death rates and causes of death.

6. Preventing Cognitive Decline and Dementia: A Way Forward This deals with our ability to function as we age. Success in this area could greatly diminish the cost to families and society in general of our staying alive longer.

7. Seeing Students Learn Science: Integrating Assessment and Instruction in the Classroom Again the issue is making sure that science is separated from fiction as children learn how the world works.

8. Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide The growing population, and our growing use of resources to sustain and improve people's lives have consequences and understanding and mitigating those costs is crucial to the future of human existence on this planet.

9. Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce: Where Are We and Where Do We Go from Here? A key demographic in any part of the world is the set of livelihoods of the population. The Industrial Revolution created a whole new set of jobs in the world and the Information Technology Revolution is doing the same.

10. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report The Trump administration may not be interested in climate change, but American scientists continue to monitor the damage that we humans are doing to the planet--and more specifically our own country--as we grow in numbers.

Of course, I have to admit that my obviously selfish all time favorite read from the National Academies Press is this one:  Tools and Methods for Estimating Populations at Risk from Natural Disasters and Complex Humanitarian Crises (2007).