Americans are Moving Less--Is That a Good Thing?

Thanks to Justin Stoler for pointing me to a story that came out in the NYTimes yesterday while I was out of town (on the move, but not migrating) about the decline in American migration rates. The story comes from a data drop by the Census Bureau from the 2019 Current Population Survey (CPS). The data show that between 1947-1948 and 1984-1985 it was common for about 20% of Americans to have changed residence during the previous year. This is, of course, a reminder of the fact that historically the country has been a nation on the move. However, since 1985, the mobility has been dropping, and last year, for the first time in the post-WWII era, less than 10% of the population moved during the 2018-2019 period covered by this Spring's CPS.

Is this a good thing, or just a thing? Sabrina Tavernise looks for answers in her article:

The decline in moving rates has happened slowly, over many years, and marks a major shift in how Americans live. It is partly demographic: The country is aging, and older people are much less likely to move than younger people. But even younger people are moving less than before, and economists, who have been studying it for years, are still puzzling over the primary driver.

“The decline in migration is really widespread,” said Abigail Wozniak, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. “It applies to all demographic groups — younger and older workers, renters and homeowners, more-educated and less-educated workers.” The change is important, she said, but it is still too early to tell if it is good or bad. “We still do not have quite enough information to know if this is worrying,” she said.

Now, to be honest, I do not see tables from the Census Bureau that show these rates by age over time. We might have to download data from IPUMS to know if she is right that this trend is happening across all age groups. However, there is no question that the aging of the U.S. population, accompanied as it is by lower birth rates among all groups, is both a cause and consequence of the changing economy of the country. Closely related (although rarely discussed) is that globalization--created by post-WWII population growth throughout the world--has dramatically altered the way the economy works, and thus how people respond to it. Other factors include the increasing gender equity that puts two workers in an increasing number of households, thus making the decision to move a much more difficult one than in the past.

This does strike me as a long-term trend that needs a lot more scrutiny. It is very likely that research grant applications are already in the works!