Little Ice Age Was Worse Than We Thought

Back in 2000, Brian Fagan, a Professor of Archaeology at the University of California, Santa Barbara, wrote a book titled "The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850." Among his findings were that the cold period in Europe unleashed all kinds of problems and that the receding of the Little Ice Age helped to usher in European population growth and the Industrial Revolution. In what certainly seems like a case of "what passes for originality is often just lack of research" a group of researchers this week published a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences making exactly those same points--climate change created havoc for Europe. The website Arstechnica provided a nice summary of the main points:

Economic chaos, famine, disease, and war may all be attributed to climate change, according to a recent study. Through advances in paleoclimatology, researchers used temperature data and climate-driven economic variables to simulate the climate that prevailed during golden and dark ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere from 1500-1800 AD. In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis. They noted that social disturbance, societal collapse and population collapse often coincided with significant climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times, suggesting that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in many preindustrial societies.In the 18th century, the mild climate improved matters considerably, leading to the speedy recovery of both Europe’s economy and population.
The alternation between periods of harmony and crisis, golden ages and dark ages, closely followed variations in the food supply per capita. Consequently, grain price could be used as an indicator of crisis in preindustrial Europe. Although grain price is dictated by agricultural production and population size, analysis by the researchers shows that temperature change was the real cause behind the grain price, since agricultural production was climate-dependent at the time.
The history of golden and dark ages in Europe is often attributed to sociopolitical factors, which fails to explain the co-occurrence of long-term crises in different countries, at different stages of development, and across different climate zones. Instead, the authors make a compelling case that climate change is the culprit, thanks to a climate-driven economic downturn due to a decreasing food supply. Where there is a shrinking food supply, chaos and misery follow.

To be fair, the authors provide a very extensive statistical analysis of data in their paper and the analysis is very useful. Still, it seems a shame not to have given a nod to Professor Fagan.

Science is Good for Health--Vitamin E Not So Much

Many people, including me, routinely take a variety of supplemental pills on the belief (or shall we say the hope) that they will improve our health, or at the worst do no harm. New research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association suggests that with respect to Vitamin E, this may be a dangerous assumption, at least for men.

There is more evidence that taking vitamin E pills can be risky. A study that followed up on men who took high doses of the vitamin for about five years found they had a slightly increased risk of prostate cancer — even after they quit taking the pills.
Doctors say it's another sign that people should be careful about using vitamins and other supplements.
"People tend to think of vitamins as innocuous substances, almost like chicken soup — take a little and it can't hurt," said lead author Dr. Eric Klein of the Cleveland Clinic. The study shows that is not true.
"If you have normal levels, the vitamin is probably of no benefit, and if you take too much, you can be harmed," Klein said.
Men randomly assigned to take a 400-unit capsule of vitamin E every day for about five years were 17 percent more likely to get prostate cancer than those given dummy pills. That dose, commonly found in over-the-counter supplements, is almost 20 times higher than the recommended adult amount, which is about 23 units daily.

So, why were people taking Vitamin E? Well, for the reason that it had been promoted as being beneficial for your health, even though there was no scientific evidence to support that claim.

Vitamin E supplements have long been promoted for disease prevention, but scientific research has disproven many claims and suggested they might increase risks for some conditions, including heart failure.
Dr. Otis Brawley, Chief Medical Officer of the American Cancer Society noted that the study echoes previous thinking on beta-carotene, which once was thought to protect against cancer but more recently has been linked with increased risks for lung cancer, especially in smokers.
"There should be a global warning that ... excessive use of vitamins has not been proven to be beneficial and may be the opposite," Brawley said.

A Peek Inside the Anti-Immigrant Movement in the South

The LA Times has been publishing a series of articles on the flow of Latino immigrants into the southern states of the US. This new migration stream has caused a backlash most famously in Alabama, but the LA Times provides insight into Alabama's next door neighbor, Mississippi. The story reveals the impact that one highly motivated person can have--in this case a white conservative Republican physician, Rodney Hunt.

Latinos have moved to the South in growing numbers over the last decade, and their presence has been accompanied by growing anger and resentment aimed at illegal immigrants. If Hunt gets his way, Mississippi will become the latest Southern state to pass a law aimed at driving illegal immigrants out — establishing the Deep South as the U.S. region with the most-stringent restrictions on illegal immigrants.
In Mississippi, there's a struggle that goes beyond immigration. Latinos, regardless of legal status, are part of a grand contest to define the state's future.
Blacks, who vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, make up 37% of Mississippi's population, the highest percentage of any state. Latinos, if they vote Democratic, could one day tip the balance of power in a state where whites — that is, white Republicans — have the upper hand.When Hunt describes this dynamic, it is not in racial terms — because, he says, these are not the terms he thinks in. Though he is a white Mississippian raised in the '60s, he says, "I changed, along with most of the people in my generation. We try to accept people as they are, and not by the color of their skin."

Not everyone buys the idea that this has nothing to do with racism, however.

Mississippi liberals suspect the anxiety is fueled by old-school bigotry. "Remnants of George Wallace, Lester Maddox, Bull Connor" is the blunt assessment of Democratic Rep. Jim Evans, an African American and president of the Mississippi Immigrants Rights Alliance, the state's main pro-immigrant group.

Regardless of the motive, the result is going to be the same as in Alabama--fear among Latino immigrants and empty fields where crops await workers. None of this is likely to help the state's economy, but the battle seems to be about politics, not economics.

Is It Toodle Loo to Tuvalu?

Global climate change may have found a victim in the tiny South Pacific islands that comprise the country of Tuvalu, home for the moment to about 11,000 people. According to The Economist the island has essentially run out of fresh water through a combination of less rain and higher sea levels.

Tuvalu has declared a state of emergency after a fresh water shortage forced it to shutter its schools and hospitals and begin water rationing across the country. Observers blame the shortage on the changing weather patterns and rising sea levels associated with climate change—and warn they could be a sign of things to come for the whole region.
Freshwater supplies had already been running dangerously low for the 11,000 people who live on Tuvalu. The drought caused by nearly a year of sparse rainfall has been made worse rising sea levels, which have contaminated the low-lying country’s underground aquifers with salt water.In fact there is probably no country is closer to the firing line in the war against global climate change than Tuvalu—which is not to say that it stands much chance of firing back. As an archipelago whose highest elevation is a meagre 4.5 metres, Tuvalu feels it when the sea level climbs by an average of 5.77mm annually. The whole country, a cluster of white sandy beaches as far as can be from the rest of the planet, is expected to disappear entirely within the next 50 years. That fate portends ominously not just for Tuvalu, but also for every other low-lying coastal area, from the Maldives to Manhattan.

The population of Tuvalu, largely of Polynesian origin, is generally poor, with an income of scarcely more than $400 per year per person, according to data from the Population Reference Bureau. Consistent with a low-income population, it has a high birth rate (3.7 children per woman) and a life expectancy of only 64, which is several years below the world average. The island would already be severely over-populated were it not for the fact that out-migration has been keeping a damper on population increase. Those migrants seem to show up especially in New Zealand and Australia and remittances home probably keep the relatively limited Tuvalu economy going. However, The Economist reports that Australia is not yet open to the idea of accepting all migrants from the islands.

California Passes Its Version of the Dream Act

Alabama may be doing its darnedest to chase undocumented immigrants out of the state--even more so than Arizona--but that is not true for California (nor for Texas or New Mexico). California's Governor Brown has signed into law its version of the Dream Act--meaning that children who arrived with their undocumented immigrant parents (and thus were not born in the United States) but who went to school in California, can "dream" of being helped by the state to get a higher education.

California Governor Jerry Brown on Saturday signed a bill giving illegal immigrant college students access to state-funded financial aid, the second half of two-part legislation known as the "Dream Act."Brown in July fulfilled a campaign promise by signing into law a companion bill to allow illegal immigrants to receive privately-funded college scholarships. Together the two bills have been dubbed the "California Dream Act."Only two other states, Texas and New Mexico, allow illegal immigrants to qualify for state financial aid for college, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
"Going to college is a dream that promises intellectual excitement and creative thinking," Brown said in a written statement issued by his office.
"The Dream Act benefits us all by giving top students a chance to improve their lives and the lives of all of us," he said.

Despite the claims of opponents about the cost to the state of such legislation, the numbers involved actually are pretty small.

For the 2007-2008 academic year, the University of California reports that less than three-tenths of one percent of the system's 220,000 students were immigrants who qualified for in-state tuition.
More than 68 percent of those 1,941 students were U.S. citizens or "documented" immigrants, according to the University of California.
At the state universities, the new law would affect 3,633 students, or less than one percent of the 440,000 students enrolled in the current school year.
Of the nearly 2.9 million community college enrollees, 34,057 would be affected.

Proponents, of course, speak to the cost to the state economy of NOT educating the best and brightest, no matter where their parents may have come from or how they got here.