A Pox on Your House

Smallpox has been eliminated as a cause of death in the world, but new research by Anne Rimoin at UCLA and her colleagues has raised the disturbing possibility that the end of smallpox vaccination programs in sub-Saharan Africa (because they were considered no longer necessary) may have exposed the younger generation to the risk of monkeypox, a virus similar to smallpox, although not quite as deadly. Monkeypox, by the way, is not actually associated with monkeys, but rather is carried by rodents such as squirrels and rats. As the authors note in their paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

Since the global eradication of smallpox in 1977, monkeypox has been con- sidered to be the most important orthopoxvirus infection in humans. Humans can acquire monkeypox infection through direct contact with infected animals or humans. Since its discovery in 1970, the majority of cases have been reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); however, reports of monkeypox have increased in neighboring Republic of the Congo and a cluster of cases were reported in Sudan for the first time in 2006. In 2003, the first report of human monkeypox outside of the African continent occurred in the midwestern United States and was associated with imported African rodents.

The data show that young males in the DRC are the most likely victims of the disease, probably because (a) males are more likely than females to be hunting the animals from whom they then contract the disease; and (b) the younger generation has not been vaccinated against smallpox, which also protects humans against monkeypox. This is a reminder that you can't be too careful out there!

Protests Against Burqa Bans and Roma Expulsion

President Sarkozy of France has created a stir as a result of his order to expel illegal Roma immigrants from France, and for his pushing for a ban on the public wearing of Burqas. This weekend there were organized protests in several European cities supportive of the right of Romas to not be summarily tossed out of France. The French have, in fact, been publicly criticized by the European Commission for at least some aspects of this policy. However, public opinion polls in France suggest that nearly two in three French support the expulsion policy, so the French government seems to be paying little heed to the protests.

The French Senate is considering a bill that would ban not simply burqas, but the public wearing of any face veil. The bill has already passed the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament, and is expected to be voted upon by the Senate this month.

Ensuring gender equality, woman's dignity and security are the official reasons France wants to outlaw Islamic veils, most often worn as "niqabs" that hide all but the eyes. Authorities insist the global ban — which would include visiting foreigners — is not anti-Muslim.

That some other European countries like Belgium are considering similar legislation — and Muslim countries like Syria and Egypt have instituted their own limited bans on face veils — may help bolster the French argument, but not win the debate.

Moderate Muslim leaders in France and elsewhere agree that Islam does not require women to cover their faces, but many are uncomfortable with banning the veil. Scores of religious leaders have denounced the measure, and are struggling with what to advise the faithful.

The issue if obviously complex since some argue that the veil represents a very public symbol of societally-sanctioned subjugation of women. If women are required to have their face covered in public, as in Saudi Arabia, then that interpretation is almost certainly correct. However, if a woman chooses to cover her face, for whatever reason, it is hard to discern why she should be prohibited from doing so.

UPDATE--the French Senate did pass the bill banning the wearing of veils in public. If upheld Constitutionally by a panel of judges, it will become law early in 2011.

Saved From the Silver Tsunami?

Oxford University demographer David Coleman has argued for years that Europe's aging population does not need to be saved by immigrants, but rather by higher productivity from its existing work force. Auto manufacturer BMW has been experimenting with this idea in its Bavarian plants. CBS News Sunday Morning featured the story as its Labor Day headliner, but the story first appeared in the Harvard Business Review last March. BMW has found that as workers reach their fifties, they slow down and experience more sick days, which lowers productivity. So, the company developed a pilot project in which it instituted a variety of assembly line adjustments, such as allowing workers to sit rather than stand, and providing opportunities for stretch breaks. The results have been impressive:

The direct investment in the project was almost negligible, approximately €20,000. But the 70 changes increased productivity by 7% in one year, bringing the line on a par with lines in which workers were, on average, younger.

UN Responds to Food Riots

In response to the recent increase in food prices, and the food riots in Mozambique, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization has called a meeting of grain experts from around the world to assess the supply situation. The problem in Mozambique may have been unique in that the government there had kept prices artificially low in order to garner votes before last year's election, and then had to face reality this month and raise prices back up to where they should have been. But the situation is a reminder of the global jitters that exist when most countries are not food self-sufficient and, in the face of growing populations, are increasingly dependent upon supplies especially from richer nations. Into this mix comes the unknown effects on agricultural productivity of global climate change.

But the world also has to come to grips with changing weather patterns due to climate change, argued Prof. Per Pinstrup-Anderson, an expert in international agriculture atCornell University.

“We are going to have much bigger fluctuations in weather and therefore the food supply than we had in the past, so we are going to have to learn how to cope with fluctuating food prices,” Professor Pinstrup-Anderson said.

Emerging Trends in Undocumented Immigration

[This is a guest-post from my son, Greg Weeks]

From the new Pew Hispanic Center report:

The annual inflow of unauthorized immigrants to the United States was nearly two-thirds smaller in the March 2007 to March 2009 period than it had been from March 2000 to March 2005, according to new estimates by the Pew Hispanic Center.

This sharp decline has contributed to an overall reduction of 8% in the number of unauthorized immigrants currently living in the U.S.-to 11.1 million in March 2009 from a peak of 12 million in March 2007, according to the estimates. The decrease represents the first significant reversal in the growth of this population over the past two decades.

Several points to make here. First, demography accounts for some of this, as the supply for working age people gradually tries to meets demand, and so the pace slows down. Part of the reason for the huge influx in past years was because of the demographic fit between the U.S. and Latin America (plug again for my forthcoming book). Put simply, the U.S. was old and Latin America was young. Once you get more young migrants in the U.S., and thereby fewer young people in Latin America, the fit is no longer so close.

Second, it's not always clear what people are doing. We know from many studies (including this one, though it remains a bit vague) that there is no evidence of mass return migration. There may still be circular migration, but not large scale permanent return. But if the flow of undocumented immigrants continues, and the undocumented population decreases, then how do we account for that?

Third, we won't be able to make very confident conclusions about causation until the U.S. economy picks up again. An essential policy question is how much of the drop is related to enforcement. Only once there is more hiring, new construction, etc. can we get a good sense of how much enforcement matters.