Is Ebola About to Take Off?

The Ebola virus is obviously not going away. Quite the contrary, everything is getting worse, as reflected in a news story and an opinion piece in the New York Times. As bad as the recent projections by the WHO might be, it seems that most scientists looking at the situation are even more alarmed.

The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.

“We hope we’re wrong,” said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.

Among researchers looking at the possible trajectory of the disease are those at Columbia University's Earth Institute, who put together the following figure:

Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota argues that the spread of the disease is due largely to its migration, so to speak, from isolated villages (where it can be controlled) to cities where it is much harder to cope with. And, for the moment, no one is charge in the battle against Ebola. So, we need someone to take charge, and then we need to keep in mind that battling Ebola takes a toll on battling all those other diseases that beset West Africa.