The Economist also notes correctly that the recession has led to a slight reversal (not a collapse!) of this decade-long increase in fertility. However, Bongaarts and Sobotka believe that this reversal will be relatively short-lived, and that European women will return to a pattern of below replacement fertility--low, but not real low--closer to two than to one child per woman.
There can be little argument that the current, probably temporary, drop in fertility in Europe is due to the economic uncertainty of the times. The Economist, which sees itself as inspired by Adam Smith, suggests that "Adam Smith thought that economic uncertainty was bad for fertility." Perhaps he said that, but I would love to see the citation!! What Adam Smith did say in his famous Wealth of Nations (1776:I:viii.37) was that
“barrenness, so frequent among women of fashion, is very rare among those of inferior station. Luxury in the fair sex, while it enflames perhaps the passion for enjoyment, seems always to weaken, and frequently to destroy altogether, the powers of generation.”
He was, in fact, laying out the case for why we would expect low fertility in the rich countries of the world today. People of "fashion" (meaning people of wealth) have low fertility, while those in an "inferior station"(meaning economically less well off) have higher fertility.
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