In short, Republicans are bent on mitigating demographic shifts, and Democrats on harnessing them. The sheer scale of those shifts favours Democrats, unless Republicans go beyond tweaks to messaging and rethink core policies. Mayor Castro concedes that, on immigration, Republicans are moving. A year-and-a-half ago, “they were talking about electrified fences”, he recalls. Now some (though not Mr Cruz) are talking about paths to citizenship.
Yet Democrats risk a backlash, should Texans decide that the party is taking advantage of wrenching changes that are leaving their state unrecognisable. The solution is to find arguments that cut across ethnic lines, says Joaquín Castro. He cites the 30% of all Texan women who lack health insurance as an example of a unifying battle-cry. His brother urges Democrats to build a “big tent” and paint Republicans as extremists, with Mr Cruz as a prime example. The stakes are high. Texas may not be truly competitive for a few more years, but it is already a battleground.
As I have said before, the idea that demography is destiny does not mean that you can predict the future based on demographic trends. More subtly, and more importantly, demography shapes what the options for the future will be. Demography IS destiny in Texas politics because, as the Economist makes clear, the battle for the Latino vote is shaping the future.
thank you for the article, i have enjoyed joining your forum.
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I noticed your blog while seeking the origin of the phrase "demography is destiny", (or "as destiny") -- a phrase (in your judgment) erroneously attributed to Auguste Comte. While I don't doubt mis-attribution to Comte, it would be interesting to know who coined or minted this sociologically noteworthy phrase and what was actually originally meant by it.
ReplyDeleteThis reminds me: Comte is often referred to as the originator of the term `positive philosophy', when, in fact, according to Emile Durkheim, it was the largely forgotten Saint Simon who first coined the term `philosophie positif'. But for some reason the widespread false belief continues that Comte was the original author of the term. This false belief was even advanced in an early paper of philosophical principles by Morris Schlick of the positivistic Vienna Circle in Austria. It is interesting how false claims, once established, can gain currency even at the most highly acclaimed levels of `serious scholarship', and are often almost impossible to root out or eradicate.
As a final note let me say that the phrase `demography is destiny' is merely an absolutization of `demography as destiny'. For it is clear on the face of it that there are many other aspects of the social world which can be said to decide destiny. In fact, demography does not necessarily `determine' destiny at all, any more than the material basis determines the cultural superstructure of a society or `local' civilization. So it is not only worth looking for the originator of the phrase `demographics is destiny', but it is also worth considering the truth-value or legitimacy of the very idea.
I actually have answered the question about the origins of the term:http://weekspopulation.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-origins-of-demography-is-destiny.html
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