Demographic Vulnerability--Looking Forward

Yesterday I looked back at the countries of the Middle East to show that the most rapidly growing countries 25 years ago are, with few exceptions, the ones in which we today see the greatest level of violence and instability. That prompted Steve Kent at the Population Institute in Washington, DC to point me to an excellent report that they have just published on "Demographic Vulnerability: Where Population Growth Poses the Greatest Challenges." You can see the top 20 in the map below and the details for each country are provided in the report, which also has a lot of other good discussion and analysis. Indeed, I will say that I did not see a single thing with which to disagree. As the press release for the report indicates:

Robert Walker, president of the Population Institute and the principal author of the report, noted that, “Some of the countries profiled in this report—such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen—are ‘headline’ countries commonly recognized as ‘fragile’ states, though demographic pressures are seldom acknowledged. Others—such as Niger, Malawi, and Mozambique—don’t get much press coverage, but the challenges they face are no less daunting.”

World population is projected to increase from 7.3 billion today to 9.6 billion or more by 2050. Virtually all that growth will be in the developing world, and much of that increase will occur in countries struggling to alleviate hunger and severe poverty. Many countries with rapidly growing populations are threatened by water scarcity or deforestation; others are struggling with conflict or political instability. While progress is not precluded, population growth in these countries is a challenge multiplier.

I too have tried repeatedly to remind us all that the "population problem" is not "solved" just because rates of population growth are low in the richest countries. Population growth in these other countries is a storm headed our way, and we need to act now to help them and ourselves create a better future, not a worse one.