UN Population Commission Meets to Discuss Age Structures

If you've read my book, you know that I refer to the age transition as the "master" transition because it is what societies really have to cope with. The overall demographic transition is not just about changes in population size--it's about the changing numbers and percentages at each age. This week the United Nations Commission on Population and Development is meeting to discuss exactly those issues in the context of achieving the sustainable development goals. They have put together a very nice 10-minute video summarizing the Commission's work and, of course, the work more specifically of the UN Population Division. Indeed, John Wilmoth, the current Direction of the Population Division is featured in the video, as are previous directors. Here is a brief description of the focus of the week's meetings:

The historical reductions in mortality and fertility are driven by, and help to reinforce, other defining aspects of sustainable development, including expanded access to education, improvements in sexual and reproductive health, and greater gender equality. Collectively, these changes promote an increased productivity of workers, a larger workforce especially as women take on new social roles, and a higher standard of living. 

Changing population age structures also present a substantial challenge, especially to countries that are unprepared for them. The failure to account for and adapt to changes in a population’s age structure can exacerbate existing gaps in development, especially when the shift in population over time is toward age groups that lack access to essential services and social protection. Countries with growing populations of young people must find ways to provide education and employment opportunities for youth or risk forfeiting some of their potential contribution toward sustainable development.

This is an important example of the concept that demography underlies almost everything in the world. And, of course, it underscores a point made by Richard Smith, former editor of the British Medical Journal, who recently argued that: "Demography is ultimately more powerful than economics, yet we hear constantly from economists and hardly ever from demographers. We need to hear more from demographers".

All Is Not Lost--At Least When It Comes to Seeds

Modern agriculture is based on simplification, not diversification. This has allowed us to feed most--albeit not all--of the nearly 7.4 billion people currently alive on the planet. But in the long haul we may want to have access to 10,000 years of agricultural diversity in terms of different seeds. Climate change and other environmental impacts on the globe may change our minds about what is best to grow. Luckily, others have thought of that and figured out a solution, as was reported this morning on CBS Sunday Morning. It turns out that Norway hosts a "Doomsday Vault" of seeds from all over the world.

On the Arctic tundra in Svalbard, Norway, about half-way between Oslo and the North Pole, there are no gardens, no trees. Yet, deep beneath this barren surface lies the largest concentration of agricultural diversity anywhere on Earth. 

The angular, concrete structure seems more “modern art museum” than “seed storage vault.” It impresses even before entering.

American agriculturalist Cary Fowler heads this international effort to safeguard the sources of the world’s food supply -- one designed to outlast any disaster, and ultimately, all of us. 

In one room there are seeds for more than 150,000 different varieties of wheat. “The most important thing is that it represents everything that wheat can be in the future,” Fowler said. “So, those different varieties have different traits; maybe one is higher protein and another one is resistant to a particular insect or disease. And we need that collection of traits, because we don’t have a crystal ball. We don’t know what’s coming in the future, and we don’t know which of those traits will be useful or important.

The project is funded by the Crop Trust, based in Bonn, Germany, and I admit that I find it reassuring that people have planned ahead in this way. As Malthus and many other writers over the years have reminded us, the bottom line question for human society is whether or not we can feed ourselves.

The Demographics of Famine

Yesterday I commented on the linkage between looming famine and high fertility rates. In response, Abu Daoud posted the following comment:

Specifically, I'm wondering if famine is not part of the natural self-regulation of the local environment to shed excess population.

As you point out, all to these regions have very high fertility. If they had lower fertility is it not likely that there would be no famine, or that the famine would be much easier to address?

My answer is no, I don't think that famine is part of a natural self-regulation of the local environment, because the natural environment didn't create the violence that has been an important part of the limited food supply in these regions, nor did the environment on its own divert water resources and generate climate change. But we as humans have to be more aware that our actions have consequences and many of those consequences are bad. Too many children in an area does create a situation in which even a relatively small deviation from normal life can have harmful consequences because people are living on the edge all the time. 

I recommend that everyone read "The Science of Consequences" by Susan Schneider. She reminds us of the various ways in which humans sometimes fail and sometimes succeed at figuring out the good and bad consequences of what they doing to themselves and the environment around them. 

And I recommend that everyone pore over the research conducted at the Vienna Institute for Demography on the key role that education plays in almost everything demographic in the world. Increasing levels of education don't guarantee a successful future, but they dramatically increase the odds of people being healthier, having fewer children, having a more productive life, and generally improving the overall level of well-being for themselves and others. That is, in fact, another resource that should be added to the assistance package along with food and contraception.

Famine Looms

While the rich countries worry about a flood of refugees, and the Middle East continues to cope with armed conflict (thus generating many, if not most, of the refugees), a less noisy crisis is looming--that of famine, especially in Africa, but also in the Middle East. The full report is available here, and Reuters has the story summarized:

Global food crises worsened significantly in 2016 and conditions look set to deteriorate further this year in some areas with an increasing risk of famine, a report said on Friday.

"There is a high risk of famine in some areas of north-eastern Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen because of armed conflict, drought and macro-economic collapse," the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) said.

FSIN, which is co-sponsored by the United Nations food agency, the World Food Programme and the International Food Policy Research Institute, said the demand for humanitarian assistance was escalating.

FSIN said that 108 million people were reported to be facing crisis level food insecurity or worse in 2016, a drastic increase from the previous year's total of almost 80 million.

The four countries named above as facing a high risk of famine share many things in common, but an important demographic characteristic of all four is high fertility and thus high rates of population growth:

Nigeria: TFR of 5.5 (but nearly seven in the northeast)
Somalia: TFR of 6.4
South Sudan: TFR of 6.7
Yemen: TFR of 4.2

These countries all need assistance with food and contraception. 

A "Win" of Sorts for Planned Parenthood Even as it is Attacked Yet Again

I have blogged many times over the years about the threats to women's reproductive health. In the U.S., the recent threats come from well-to-do white male politicians who want to make sure that the government does not support the one national program offering reproductive health care services to women--Planned Parenthood. The Obamacare replacement bill that was pulled from consideration before a vote could be taken on it last week contained provisions to defund Planned Parenthood, but The Hill reports that yesterday House Speaker Paul Ryan suggested that they had a new plan to defund it through a "reconciliation bill."

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Tuesday that Congress shouldn’t try to defund Planned Parenthood in a measure to fund the government, but instead should use a separate healthcare reform bill.

“We think reconciliation is the tool, because that gets it into law,” Ryan told reporters in response to a question about Planned Parenthood funding.

“Reconciliation is the way to go,” he added, referring to a legislative process that prevents the Senate from filibustering legislation that doesn’t impact federal debt.

We'll have to see how this plays out, but in the meantime it was encouraging that anti-abortion activists who falsely accused Planned Parenthood of selling baby parts were indicted in California on 15 different charges. Whether or not you approve of abortion, you cannot possibly approve of this kind of illegal activity organized with the intent of preventing a legal activity.