Corn is for People, Not Cars

I have mentioned before that it makes no sense to divert the production of corn to fuel for cars rather than fuel for humans. We aren't adequately feeding our current 7 billion, and we certainly can't feed 9-10 billion without more corn for people, rather than less. An Op-Ed piece in today's New York Times makes the case that this is the right time for the EPA to cut back on earlier US Government mandates that some corn be used for biofuels. The current drought in the midwest is driving up the price of corn, which will naturally be reflected in higher food prices--pushed that much higher if corn continues to be diverted away from the dinner table.

By suspending renewable-fuel standards that were unwise from the start, the Environmental Protection Agency could divert vast amounts of corn from inefficient ethanol production back into the food chain, where market forces and common sense dictate it should go.Previous droughts in the Midwest (most recently in 1988) also resulted in higher food prices, but misguided energy policies are magnifying the effects of the current one. Federal renewable-fuel standards require the blending of 13.2 billion gallons of corn ethanol with gasoline this year. This will require 4.7 billion bushels of corn, 40 percent of this year’s crop.Any defense of the ethanol policy rests on fallacies, primarily these: that ethanol produced from corn makes the United States less dependent on fossil fuels; that ethanol lowers the price of gasoline; that an increase in the percentage of ethanol blended into gasoline increases the overall supply of gasoline; and that ethanol is environmentally friendly and lowers global carbon dioxide emissions.
The ethanol lobby promotes these claims, and many politicians seem intoxicated by them. Corn is indeed a renewable resource, but it has a far lower yield relative to the energy used to produce it than either biodiesel (such as soybean oil) or ethanol from other plants. Ethanol yields about 30 percent less energy per gallon than gasoline, so mileage drops off significantly. Finally, adding ethanol actually raises the price of blended fuel because it is more expensive to transport and handle than gasoline.

We need to get our heads on straight over this issue, and the sooner the better.

Iraq Resists Syrian Refugees

In a new complication to the Middle East situation, the New York Times reports that Iraq has turned a very cold shoulder to Syrians fleeing the violence in their country.

Alone among Syria’s Muslim neighbors, Iraq is resisting receiving refugees from the conflict, and is making those who do arrive anything but comfortable. Baghdad is worried about the fighters of a newly resurgent Al Qaeda flowing both ways across the border, and about the Sunni opponents of the two governments making common cause.

This is a very different story from the warm reception that Iraqi refugees received in Syria when they fled violence in their country.

The differences have everything to do with the changing fortunes of the two neighbors. In the height of the Iraq war, Mr. Assad had firm control of his country, and an interest in destabilizing Iraq and undercutting its American allies. Syria routinely helped Al Qaeda to infiltrate fighters and suicide bombers into Iraq. Now, American troops have left Iraq, and Al Qaeda has switched sides, taking up arms against the Assad government.

For the moment, Jordan has taken in the largest number of Syrian refugees, followed by Turkey and Lebanon.

Hong Kong Takes Over From Japan in Life Expectancy Race

The big health news today is that for the first time in a long time, Japanese women are not the longest lived in the world. The new leaders are women in Hong Kong. BBC News reports that:

The expected lifespan for Japanese women dropped from 86.30 years in 2010 to to 85.90 years in 2011.
The official life expectancy for women in Hong Kong last year was 86.70 years.
Japan has topped the women's rankings for a quarter of a century, with longevity attributed in part to a healthy traditional diet.

While some of the drop for Japanese women might have been due to the devastating earthquake, it appears that a rise in suicide and deaths from natural causes also contributed to the drop. Japanese men also experienced a drop in life expectancy and went from fourth to eighth on the global list. 


Note, by the way, the typical confusion in the BBC story about the difference between life expectancy and lifespan.

People Still Postponing Babies in the US

The USA Today that was shoved under our door in the hotel here in Savannah, Georgia has the big headline "National birthrate lowest in 25 years." This isn't really big news, and I commented on this trend nearly two years ago. What is interesting, though, is that the story emanated not from the US National Center for Health Statistics, but from a demographics firm--Demographic Intelligence--

--a Charlottesville, Va., company that produces quarterly birth forecasts for consumer products and pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer and Procter & Gamble.

Marketers track fertility trends closely because they affect sales of thousands of products from diapers, cribs and minivans to baby bottles, toys and children's pain relievers.

The less-educated and Hispanics have experienced the biggest birthrate decline while the share of U.S. births to college-educated, non-Hispanic whites and Asian Americans has grown

"What that tells you is that births have clearly been affected by the economy," says Sam Sturgeon, president of Demographic Intelligence. "And like any recession, it doesn't hit all people equally, and it hit some people much harder than others."

And the US Today reporter tracked down others with useful comments:

Many young adults are unemployed, carrying big student loan debt and often forced to move back in with their parents — factors that may make them think twice about starting a family.
"The more you delay it, the more you delay the possibility of a second or third child," says Stephanie Coontz, director of research and public education at the Council on Contemporary Families. "This is probably a long-term trend that is exacerbated by the recession but also by the general hollowing out of middle-class jobs. There's a growing sense that college is prohibitively expensive, and yet your kids can't make it without a college degree," so many women may decide to have just one child.

Life Expectancy Along the Tube in London

With the London Olympics about to start, Justin Stoler at the University of Miami suggested that this was a good time to link to a recent study by James Chesire at CASA (Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis) at University College London. The study shows life expectancy around each of the stops along the London Underground (the Tube), with the catchy title of "Lives on the Line." Even in as wealthy a city as London, there are considerable spatial inequalities or gaps in longevity, in ways that appear to Cheshire to be generally consistent with people's expectations (no pun intended).

Whilst the average life expectancy predictions show that today’s children are expected to live longer, the range is startling. For the stations mapped, it is over 20 years with those around Star Lane (on the DLR) predicted to live, on average, for 75.3 years in contrast to 96.38 years for those around Oxford Circus. The smaller disparities are no less striking. For example, between Lancaster Gate and Mile End (20 minutes on the Central line) life expectancy decreases by 12 years and crossing the Thames between Pimlico and Vauxhall sees life expectancy drop by 6 years. The stations serving the Olympic Park fair badly and contrast with the Olympic volleyball venue at Earl’s Court whose spectators will be passing through areas with far higher life expectancies and lower child poverty.

And, of course, you knew I couldn't resist it: Mind the gap!